Rugby World Cup 2007

Plotting the path to world cup glory


By John MacDonald

As the days count-down to the 2007 Rugby World Cup kick-off, the All Blacks have once again been installed as favourites.

No one can question the New Zealanders’ claim to that status, but too often the All Blacks have flattered to deceive, come the World Cup crunch.

The Kiwis consider themselves the best rugby nation on the planet, rugby is their national sport, and few folk take their rugby quite so seriously as those from the Land of the Long White Cloud.

On paper, the reasons are not hard to find, even if the All Blacks have lifted the World Cup only once in history – and that was 20 years ago.

Despite that, the All Blacks still have the best playing record of any rugby nation in the intervening period, averaging only one loss in every 40 matches.

That’s on paper. On World Cup pitches, it’s a different story. Although the All Blacks don’t lose too often, the perennial expectation of success puts tremendous pressure on the national side.

Commentators have labelled them ‘chokers’ after coming short in three semi-finals (1991, 1999, and 2003) and losing the 1995 final to an extra-time drop goal by South Africa.
Will 2007 end the All Blacks’ 20-year drought? The bookies might reckon so, but don’t bet on it.

The Web Ellis Trophy is wide open, and France, South Africa, and Australia are all in strong contention. Even defending champions England could pull off an unlikely repeat of 2003, but dismal showings in the pre-tournament warm-up matches against France give little cause for optimism – even to their most-die-hard fans.

For the rest, quarter-final placings will satisfy their ambitions. There is no likelihood of giant-killing in this tournament. Admittedly, no one would have given Ireland a chance of beating Pakistan in the equivalent Cricket World Cup earlier this year, and that would rank with Namibia beating their Springbok neighbours.

Apart from Western Samoa beating Wales in 1991, the Rugby World Cup generally produces very little by way of shock results.

So, what’s the likely lineup in the knockout stages?

Pool A sees South Africa, England, Samoa,Tonga, and the United States all face off. Despite being technically part of the tournament’s ‘minnows’, Tonga and Samoa are no pushovers and if England don’t play to their full potential they could well get beaten by either of them. Not for nothing is Pool A tagged the ‘Pool of Death’.

On form, South Africa should top this group with England in second spot.

In Pool B, Australia, Wales, Japan, Canada and Fiji contest the two qualifying places. Certainly no shocks expected here. Australia will win with Wales sure to be runners-up.

The All Blacks, Scotland, Italy, Portugal, and Romania comprise Pool C and the Kiwis should advance on top. Second place is far harder to predict and the Scotland-Italy game will be the decider, with the Scots determined to avenge their shock Six Nations defeat by the Azzuri.

Pool D pits France, Argentina, Ireland, Georgia, and Nambia against each other. The outcome is fairly predictable: France on top with Ireland likely to beat the Pumas to second place.

On that basis, the quarter finals should look like this:

QF1 Australia v England
QF2 New Zealand v Ireland
QF3 South Africa v Wales
QF4 France v Scotland

QF1: Australia should advance, mainly because their pool is the weakest and they should cruise through with ease and be well rested and ready for the English. But the defending cupholders will have played three of the hardest hitting sides in World Rugby in SA, Samoa and Tonga, a tough road that will give them more injuries and should see them well beaten by the fresher Wallabies.

QF2: The All Blacks will progress here with ease no matter who they play, so whether it’s Ireland or Argentina is largely irrelevant.

QF3: The Springboks will advance without many problems.

QF4: If Scotland do beat Italy to get this far, this could be an interesting encounter. The Scots have a good record against the French recently, but even so, a repeat of the last Six Nations upset is improbable to say the least.

The tournament will really come alive at the semi-finals where the likely pairings will be:

SF1: Australia v New Zealand
SF2 France v South Africa

This is where predictions start getting difficult, but commentators can’t sit on the fence. Time to stick my neck out… and go for Australia. They will have had the far easier run, and the All Blacks must face up to the ‘choker’ accusations. It will be close, but the Wallabies should edge it.

The host side take on South Africa in the second semi-final where home advantage could be the decisive factor, especially as the Springboks are not the greatest on foreign soil.

That gives a final pairing of France and Australia. For the Wallabies, the easy run is over. A hard semi against Le All Blacks will have sapped their strength, so expect the Marseillaise chorus to be ringing loud from Normandy to Nice when the final whistle blows and French skipper Raphael Ibanez hoists the Web Ellis Trophy.

But whatever the outcome, rugby fans are in for a feast. Whether watching live action from the stands or on millions of television sets around the world, this is a spectacle to be relished.

It only comes round every four years, so savour every moment.